THE JACKSON WELLS REPORT

Jackson Wells' Bob Lawrence on Spin Doctors Thursday

Benjamin Haslem

Jackson Wells' Account Director Bob Lawrence (left) is making one of his regular appearances on ABC Radio Sydney's Spin Doctors segment this Thursday at 9.15am (11.15pm Wednesday GMT). If you're in Sydney tune in on 702AM or you can stream it. The Spin Doctors panel analyses the week’s best and worst spin in the media.

As it was and as it was spun

KEITH JACKSON thanks Paul Oates for this rural myth.

Judy Wallman, a professional genealogical researcher, discovered that Hillary Clinton's great-great uncle, Remus Rodham, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Montana in 1889. The only known photograph of Remus shows him standing on the gallows. On the back of the picture is this inscription: "Remus Rodham; horse thief, sent to Montana Territorial Prison 1885, escaped 1887, robbed the Montana Flyer six times, caught by Pinkerton Detectives, convicted and hanged in 1889.

Hillary Clinton’s office was asked for its take on said Remus and the professional image adjusters sent back this biographical sketch:

“Remus Rodham was a famous cowboy in the Montana Territory. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Montana railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to service at a government facility, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad. In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the renowned Pinkerton Detective Agency. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honor when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed.”

A meaningless survey on alcohol abuse

BENJAMIN HASLEM

This breathless media release (complete with incorrect date) has been put out by the Alcohol Education & Rehabilitation Foundation:

New national market research reveals over 2.2 million Australians over the age of 14 experienced physical and/or verbal abuse during the recent December – January holiday period from someone under the influence of alcohol.

Really? And how did the AERF reach this startling conclusion?

An on-line survey.

The release doesn't explain where the link to the on-line survey was. However, such surveys are inherently problematic. Primarily because respondents are self selected. Therefore you get a highly skewed sample, with people with a gripe about alcohol and drunks more likely to take the survey.

This can be partly remedied, but still without great reliability, with on-line omnibus surveys covering a range of subjects but including one or two questions about alcohol. Perhaps a survey on spending habits covering mobile phones, clothes, entertainment and alcohol (including questions about abuse and booze).

Unfortunately, the release doesn't give a lot of detail of the on-line survey, other than there were 1,000 respondents. That's an awfully small (and unreliable) sample from which to extrapolate that 2.2 million Australians were subjects of abuse.

Finally, how do the respondents know the abuser was "under the influence of alcohol"? Did they breath-test them? Could they (abusers) have been mentally ill, under the influence of other drugs or just having a bad day?

Alcohol-related violence is a serious issue in Australia. Jackson Wells works with the Australian Hotels Association (NSW), whose members are acutely aware of the public expectation that they serve alcohol responsibly. The AHA (NSW) is a strong supporter of the State's tough Responsible Service of Alcohol laws.

The AHA is also aware of the importance of an evidentiary-based approach to policy making.

The AERF survey does not cut it as evidence. It's pretty poor hearsay. AERF needs quantitative research that will provide statistical validity and therefore reliability and credibility

Short of that, the media release should acknowledge the limitations of the 'research' and be structured to reflect these limitations, such as saying that the survey "suggests" not "reveals" conclusions. Otherwise it's just bad spin.

Not that the media is skeptical. News Limited's news.com.au ran the survey complete with the reporter's own spin: "Research commissioned by the advocacy group Alcohol Education and Rehabilitation (AER) Foundation shows Australia's culture of regular binge drinking is alive and well."

No it doesn't. There is no claim in the 'research' findings that the abusers had been binge drinking.

The real problems of not moving on

Keith Jackson

Julie Bishop, the gimlet-eyed Western Australian Federal politician who is a candidate for the job of deputy leader of the new economy-sized Liberal Party, has a couple of serious political problems in maintaining her support for the discredited WorkChoices legislation. Which is a shame, because she seems to have the toughness of spirit and sharpness of rhetoric required for a demanding and thankless job.

But Ms Bishop, as one of a rapidly shrinking group of Liberals who want to hang on to WorkChoices, does not appear to grasp the following political fundamentals:

WorkChoices was a key issue at the recent election and it was a policy of proven unpopularity among Australian employees. Politicians who support it are courting a continuing negative response from the electorate.

The new Labor government, in putting the abolition of WorkChoices in such a central position in its campaign, has the clearest mandate to get rid of the legislation.

Most of Ms Bishop’s senior Liberal colleagues say the WorkChoices era has ended, leaving her perched like a defeathered shag on a bare rock – and risking public perceptions of a Liberal Party at odds with itself when it should be moving on.

Her continuing use of spin like ‘WorkChoices created 400,000 jobs’, when the economy would have generated the jobs irrespective of the legislation, reminds the entire sentient population of one of the reasons it so detested the Howard government: the Coalition kept fiddling the facts and figures. And it reinforces with some of us her slender grasp of economics.

Ms Bishop would be well advised to bear in minds the words of the great Texan philosopher and punctuation nihilist Kenny Rogers (1938 - ):

“Now evry gambler knows that the secret to survivin
Is knowin what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
cause evry hands a winner and evry hands a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.”

And amen to that.

Marching alone, the only man in step

Keith Jackson

We've created a Bad Spin category on Jackson Wells – and we're looking forward to having a bit of fun with it. Here’s the first entry from today’s Weekend Australian, which has been running a panel on which political party (in the opinion of esteemed analysts) won the preceding week of the Federal election campaign.

“Week five went to Labor” – David Speers, political editor, Sky News

“Labor won the week” – Chris Uhlmann, chief political correspondent, ABC Radio

“Labor won this week decisively” – Matthew Franklin, chief political correspondent, The Australian

“Labor won the week” – Patricia Karvelas, political correspondent, The Australian

“Labor won this week convincingly” – Stephen Loosley, former ALP national president and senator

“It was Kevin Rudd’s week” – Paul Kelly, editor-at-large, The Australian

“Labor continues to win the 2007 election campaign” – Dennis Shanahan, political editor, The Australian

“Mixed fortunes this week. No clear winner” – Lynton Crosby, managing director and co-founder of campaign strategy firm Crosby Textor

Back to the drawing board, Lynton.

Photo: Lynton Crosby [UK Conservative Party]